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Tariffs shake up U.S.–Mexico automotive trade
U.S.–Mexico
Electronics-led nearshoring continues to drive steady northbound demand, with Mexico now surpassing China as the United States’ top supplier of electrical and electronic goods. This shift is fueling truckload finished goods flowing through Texas and California gateways. Automotive trends, however, remain mixed: August production showed modest gains, but exports softened, with performance diverging by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the summer OEM retooling / shutdown period influencing both parts and finished vehicle cross-border moves. This variability is creating plant-specific freight volatility across lanes such as Laredo, El Paso, Nogales, and Otay.
Policy and compliance factors are also shaping cross-border flows. Mexico is advancing a broad tariff plan for non-FTA origin, explicitly targeting Chinese autos and parts, which may protect USMCA-aligned production but raise input costs and force sourcing adjustments. At the same time, Mexico’s new “manifestación de valor” (declaration of value) requirement is in effect, with mandatory electronic transmission of imports into Mexico slated for December 9, 2025, potentially lengthening border processes for unprepared shippers.
Looking ahead, electronics demand is expected to remain well above 2024 levels, particularly on Laredo and Otay routes, while automotive component flows will stay uneven by OEM, with lanes rebalancing as tariff-sensitive inputs are resourced.
Key takeaways
To manage these shifting dynamics, secure capacity early for key cross-border lanes such as Laredo and Otay, build extra lead time into planning for potential border delays, and stay updated on these evolving market dynamics via the C.H. Robinson North American Trade & Tariff Insights page, for anything that could alter sourcing costs or strategies. Flexibility in routing and proactive communication with carriers will help mitigate volatility, particularly in automotive flows.
U.S.–Canada
Preparing for Q4 amid tariff-driven freight disruptions
As Q4 approaches, a typically strong season for retail freight, the Canadian–U.S. market is contending with significant headwinds driven by ongoing tariff uncertainty. Cross-border volumes have contracted, particularly in key sectors such as automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing. Spot rates have softened, with northbound shipments from the United States experiencing the steepest declines.
Recent Statistics Canada (StatsCan) data highlights the impact: exports to the United States are down 15.7%, while imports have fallen 12.3%. Over half of exporters and 40% of importers expect reduced profitability in Q4, reflecting higher costs, customs delays, and product reclassification challenges.
Key takeaways
To navigate this volatile environment, carriers are advised to reassess capacity plans, maintain operational flexibility, and closely monitor regulatory changes. Shippers and receivers should factor in additional lead time, optimize load planning, and explore tariff mitigation strategies to safeguard margins and ensure reliable service through the traditionally busy fourth quarter.