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Non-auto exports boost Mexico manufacturing in June
U.S.–Mexico
Drug-related tariff on U.S. imports from Mexico did not increase August 1
The possibility of the United States raising a drug-related tariff from 25% to 30% was considered. But the White House announced July 31 that the tariff imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) would remain at 25% for at least 90 days, through October 30, 2025, as negotiations continue.
The United States has requested that Mexico eliminate non-tariff trade barriers to facilitate smoother access for U.S. businesses. Those include providing advance notice of customs procedure changes, standardizing regulatory interpretations at border checkpoints, and consistency in administrative processes.
Goods compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) remain exempt. U.S. Census Bureau data indicates that only 46% of U.S. imports from Mexico are certified under USMCA. Shippers can reach out to their customs broker for guidance on how to pursue certification.
Cancellation of Mexico’s planned automatic export notice
Mexican authorities have announced that the Automatic Export Notice scheduled to take effect on August 11, 2025, will not be implemented. The products referenced in the original notice may continue to be exported under current procedures, without any additional requirements.
Export freight conditions
Mexico’s exports are growing, both to the United States and overall, but less so for the automotive industry.
The manufacturing sector’s exports bounced back in June with a 13.5% jump year‑over-year (y/y), according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This was the highest in 11 months. June automotive exports rose only 4.5% y/y. Manufacturing subsectors outperforming automotive exports include machinery and industrial equipment (up 55%), scientific equipment (up 23%), and electronic equipment (up 6.6%). This boosted total Mexican exports, which accelerated by 10.6% y/y, following a slight contraction in the prior month.
Approximately 60% of Mexican exports originated from the northern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Baja California, Tamaulipas, and Jalisco. These same states are also commonly at the top of investment attraction. All this reflects a shift toward a new wave of nearshoring for higher-value products, such as electronics and information technologies.
In contrast, U.S. tariffs have led some expansion projects for the Mexican auto parts industry to be paused. Auto parts exports were initially projected by a national trade group to grow around 2% this year. Affected by the 50% U.S. tariff on steel, aluminum, and goods made with those materials, the adjusted forecast is for near-flat growth compared to 2024.
Exports to the United States account for about 80% of all Mexico exports. Like Mexico’s overall exports, those also bounced back in June. Exports of non‑petroleum goods to the United States rose by 15% y/y, compared with only 0.8% in the previous month. Within that, automotive exports to the United States increased 6%.
Cross-border market remains oversupplied
Despite export growth, the U.S.-Mexico cross-border market continues to have an oversupply of capacity compared to demand. This is partly explained by overcapacity created in previous years and frontloaded shipments driven by tariff fears earlier this year.
Truck sales in Mexico have plummeted by 41.5%, exacerbated by imports of used U.S. trucks and purchases made by carriers when the market had different conditions. Mexican carriers face additional financial pressures due to the strengthening of the Mexican peso (appreciating to 18.5329 MXN/USD, its best level in 2025) and a 2% rise in diesel costs following the removal of government subsidies.
Reach out to your C.H. Robinson representative for support in navigating and capitalizing on current cross-border market dynamics.
Impact of 17% U.S. tariffs on tomatoes
The 17% U.S. tariff on fresh tomato imports from Mexico, which began July 14, 2025, is receiving mixed reviews from growers and business owners in the United States. Florida growers support the increased tariff, expecting the U.S. tomato business to grow as Mexico imports will likely be reduced. Other growers, particularly those in the U.S. Southwest that operate on both sides of the border, face a new scenario.
While the climate in Mexico is better for growing tomatoes year-round, leading to lower production costs, many areas of the United States rely on greenhouse cultivation. These domestic operations require substantial investments in both time and money. Cross-border growers should carefully consider whether the costs of serving increased U.S. demand will outweigh the added costs and logistical challenges posed by the tariffs.
Intra-Mexico freight
Intra-Mexico freight demand is on track to stay flat. A lack of growth in the Mexican economy (0% in May), stagnant employment, reduced domestic consumption, and a nearly 30% cut in government infrastructure spending is raising concerns over an internal economic slowdown in the second half of the year.
Mexico ports
Manzanillo congestion forces service changes
The Port of Manzanillo is still experiencing severe operational challenges despite extensive intervention efforts. Extended customs hours and additional staffing have failed to resolve persistent delays.
The vessel berthing wait time is now four to five days, and further increases are expected. Slow import clearance and yard congestion prevent efficient movement of empty containers, creating equipment positioning challenges.
Diversions may become more widespread if Manzanillo conditions don’t improve, potentially reshaping regional drayage patterns and equipment positioning for the remainder of 2025.
Hurricane season heightens risks
Hurricane season in Mexico (June through November) adds weather-related risks to existing operational challenges. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has already modified schedules to use Lázaro Cárdenas instead of Manzanillo to avoid congestion, demonstrating how persistent problems can force more permanent service changes.
Shippers should build additional lead time into planned Mexico shipments and consider developing comprehensive alternative port strategies. The combination of infrastructure limitations, operational challenges, and weather risks requires enhanced contingency planning throughout the hurricane season.
Air service to Mexico
Demand remains high on routes from South America to Mexico, requiring seven to 12 days advance booking. Shipments under 500 kilograms continue to be more manageable for quicker departures, especially when booked as general cargo rather than in specialized handling categories.
U.S.–Canada
Drug-related tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada have increased
Tariffs intended to stem the flow of illicit drugs were raised to 35% on goods from Canada as of August 1, 2025. Though goods compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade agreement remain exempt, industry executives anticipate direct consequences, including rising operational costs, supply chain disruptions, and customer attrition to American competitors.
According to a recent KPMG report, 88% of executives expressed concern over supply chain reliability, while 62% cited pressure on profit margins. In response, many companies are reevaluating their strategies, optimizing cost structures, adopting AI-driven solutions, and exploring new market opportunities. Shippers are encouraged to assess the potential implications for their supply chains and engage with their logistics provider to explore mitigation strategies.
As the U.S. trade and tariff landscape continues to evolve, shippers are encouraged to remain agile in their planning and follow the C.H. Robinson Trade & Tariffs Insights for the latest news, insights, perspectives, and resources from our experts.