C.H. Robinson Edge Report

Freight Market Update: October 2025
Energy

Despite challenges, renewable energy growth persists

Thanks to plummeting prices, solar overcomes policy obstacles

Solar energy adoption in the United States is advancing steadily, even as federal incentives and regulatory approaches evolve. Solar is projected to represent half of all new U.S. power generation in 2025-26.

The driving force behind solar power’s surprising strength is pricing. Costs for both residential and utility-scale photovoltaic installations have been falling precipitously in the last 15 years. Even as the U.S. administration phases out renewable energy tax incentives, solar and wind energy projects are shown to have a roughly 50% lower levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) than almost all fossil fuel projects.

At the same time, the growth of AI and electric vehicles, as well as the need for resilience, especially in regions with ageing energy systems, has driven demand. As a result, commercial interest in new solar capacity remains high.

Moving solar equipment to remote or developing markets requires specialised supply chain solutions and risk management. As solar adoption accelerates, logistics teams must be prepared for more complex, multimodal deliveries and increased demand for flexible, responsive service models. C.H. Robinson has extensive renewable energy logistics capabilities and end-to-end solutions, all supported with planning and visibility to mitigate risk and maintain schedule and budgets.

Gas turbine shortage shows no signs of letting up

Adding to the attractiveness of solar energy generation is the continued backlogue for natural gas turbines. Even though natural gas is no longer the obvious choice for cheaper power, demand for turbines is at historic levels, driven by the need to replace older turbines, coal plant retirements and increasing power demand from AI.

Turbine makers are increasing manufacturing capacity, but multi-year wait times are not expected to decrease any time soon. Industry insiders say reducing wait times is not just a matter of increasing floor space at production facilities. Other factors include a shortage of trained labour and worries about the creation of an unsustainable turbine bubble, since long-term demand cannot be guaranteed.

DOE launches Speed to Power Initiative, aiming to boost AI readiness

The average U.S. power grid is more than 25 years old and not equipped to handle the increasing loads from AI data centres. For that reason, the DOE launched the Speed to Power Initiative, soliciting input on rapid, large-scale grid infrastructure expansion. Through a formal request for information, the initiative seeks the private sector’s ideas on how to boost multi-gigawatt generation, transmission and grid infrastructure projects tailored specifically to keep up with the AI race.

According to the Department of Energy’s 7 July Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security report, most U.S. regions will face unacceptable risks within five years. If nothing changes, grid retirements and expected energy load growth will increase the risk of blackouts by a factor of 100 by 2030, leaving millions of households and businesses vulnerable—and the AI sector wanting for electricity.

What to know ahead of refinery turnaround season

Fall, with its lower fuel demand, is traditionally the season for refinery turnarounds, when units are taken off-line for inspection, repair and upgrades. These turnarounds require precisely choreographed logistics, since they temporarily halt production, which can disrupt supply chains.

During a turnaround, routine day-to-day freight continues, but project freight becomes a priority. Small freight typically includes specialised tools, replacement parts and safety equipment. Large freight often consists of heavy machinery, industrial components and sometimes entire distillation columns. The complexity increases when capital projects are involved, bringing more suppliers and carriers into the process and raising the risk of bottlenecks and delays.

C.H. Robinson services, including Managed Solutions™, Item-Level Solutions, multimodal freight brokerage and supply chain consulting are designed to support the unique logistics demands of refinery turnarounds and other large-scale energy sector projects.

Latest tariff updates

  • On 8 September, 2025, an updated list of exemptions to the reciprocal tariffs went into effect. Shippers are advised to determine if their products were added or subtracted to this new list.
  • The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the U.S. administration’s appeal to a recent ruling that the government hasn't got the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which was used to establish the reciprocal tariffs on imports for most countries outside of China, Mexico and Canada. Enforcement is delayed until 14 October 2025. If the tariffs are ultimately deemed invalid, there is uncertainty around if and how they will be reimbursed. Supreme Court briefings will likely conclude in late October, with hearings expected early November and a decision expected in late November or early December.

*This information is compiled from a number of sources—including market data from public sources and data from C.H. Robinson—that to the best of our knowledge are accurate and correct. It is always the intent of our company to present accurate information. C.H. Robinson accepts no liability or responsibility for the information published herein. 

To deliver our market updates to our global audiences in the timely manner possible, we rely on machine translations to translate these updates from English.