Mat: Welcome to the September edition of the Robinson Edge video. My name is Mat Leo and I'm joined, as always, by Ryan Hammett to talk about the latest developments in the freight market. Today, we will cover the U.S. visa pauses for truck drivers, the early high season outlook and tariff extension impact on Asia ocean freight and how U.S. Diesel's 29-month streak of pricing declines has finally come to an end and how that will affect trucking. 

But first, let's talk about the recent routeing guide depth metrics in North America truckload freight. 

Ryan: For those of you that might not be familiar with route guide depth, this is a metric that indicates how far a shipper needs to go into their backup strategies for contract freight if the awarded provider rejects a tender. This is data that comes from our Robinson Managed Solutions Group who manage freight for shippers across all sizes and industries. 

And it's important as a market indicator because our sponsor research completed by MIT has shown that our route guide depth metric is a leading indicator for both shifts in the truckload market cycle and as a catalyst for freight to shift into the LTL space. 

So if a reading of one is perfect performance, meaning where everyone in the route guide accepts every load tendered to them, then a reading of two would be considered extremely poor. And ever since the truckload market correction in early 2022, our route guide depth has been relatively flat in line with performance of the larger market. 

Mat: And while there have been some minor blips of increases over the last three years, those have been both mild and temporary in nature. And the month of August saw no real change to the three-year trend as August had a reading of 1.18, which is a slight improvement over the prior month of July of 1.2. And it's even with where we're at present last year in August. And that slight softening occurred across all regions and all mileage bands. 

When we say slight improvement, I want to note that this is an improvement for shipper experience, meaning that the market has softened a bit, increasing the likelihood that the primary carrier will accept the freight when tendered. Shippers should continue to monitor this metric in our monthly Edge report to stay ahead of the curve. 

Ryan: Switching gears, we've been getting a lot of questions around the U.S. Foreign Office's pause on issuing new H-2B work visas for commercial drivers. At first glance, this sounds like it could rattle capacity, particularly in cross-border markets like South California or Texas. where that type of freight is concentrated. But the important distinction here is that drivers currently holding H-2B visas aren't affected. This only applies to new applicants. 

And it's important to note that this doesn't apply to B-1 visa holders, as H-2B visas are different than the B-1 visas that cross-border carriers based in Mexico or Canada leverage. An H-2B visa allows U.S. employers to hire foreign nationals for temporary work, whereas a B-1 visa is a non-immigrant visa for temporary visitors to conduct business activity while in the country. 

This difference is important as it means the immediate impact on U.S. trucking capacity for pausing H-2B visa issuance is minimal, with only about 1,500 of these issued in 2025 for both warehousing and transportation. What we do need to watch, though, is how this pause fits into the broader backdrop of cabotage enforcement. Carriers that run cross-border freight are already cautious and when regulations are open to interpretation, some may choose to operate more conservatively. 

Mat: That's exactly right, Ryan. And where we could see some disruptions is on specific lanes, particularly those that cross late in the day and can't make delivery within the same shift. Cabotage rules state that foreign carriers can't haul freight between two points within the U.S. They can only make it pick up or drop as part of a larger international trip. 

So A Canadian carrier picking up a return load to the U.S. must return to Canada with that freight. But if interpretation tightens, carriers may avoid anything that looks like it could be a cabotage risk. And if that happens, shippers moving cross-border loads through areas like Southern California should expect occasional service hiccups. 
Until customs, ICE and FMCSA align on guidance, uncertainty lingers, which means planning can get more complicated. 

Ryan: So for shippers, the key takeaway is to stay proactive. Make sure your carriers are communicating any lane-level disruptions in real time. It's also a good moment to review contingency plans, not necessarily to overhaul your network, but to have alternatives in your back pocket if a lane suddenly tightens up. 

Shippers that maintain close collaboration with their carriers and brokers will be in the best position to absorb whatever ripple effects emerge from these visa changes. 

Mat: Now let's pivot to fuel. In August, the national average diesel price landed at $3.74 per gallon. And while that's down slightly from July, it's higher than where we were last August. And that small year-over-year increase is meaningful as it ends a 29-month streak of year-over-year declines in fuel prices that has been aiding carriers. 

On the surface, fuel is a pass-through cost that shippers pay through surcharges. But the real market story here is how fuel interacts with carrier behaviour. When fuel is relatively cheap, carriers can deadhead longer distances without really breaking their cost structure. 

And that's one reason that we've seen slower attrition of small fleets despite the soft market. 

Ryan: And that dynamic is important because when carriers can stretch further for freight, it keeps supply more stable than it otherwise would be. But if fuel prices were to rise meaningfully from here, the story flips. Carriers would feel the pinch fast, especially in a soft market where margins are thin. 

For LTL carriers, fuel is an even bigger impact because of their network design. All of those short haul stops add up and higher diesel makes every pickup and delivery more expensive. That creates operating pressure, not just in truckload, but across all modes, like intermodal, air or even ocean freight, since fuel surcharges tend to track diesel. 

Mat: And the message to shippers is to keep fuel on your radar, even when it feels stable. If costs climbed further, we could see an accelerated exit of carriers, which in turn would compress available capacity and hasten the transition to a tight phase of the cycle. In short, don't assume that today's fuel environment will hold. Consider running what-if scenarios with your transportation partners to understand how fuel cost shifts could alter your budget and your access to capacity. 

Ryan: Finally, let's talk about ocean freight. Historically, there's a cargo rush about two weeks before Golden Week holiday in October. but it remains to be seen if that will be the case this year. High season on the trans-Pacific may have already been experienced this year due to all of the U.S. tariff changes in August. Importers front-loaded cargo in June and July to beat those tariff deadlines, which means that the usual September-October surge will likely not materialise. 

For carriers, that has translated into weaker than usual demand and the response has been blank sailings. which is cancelling voyages to cut supply. That keeps vessel utilisation in check, but it also creates headaches for shippers because sailing schedules can suddenly shift. 

Mat: Exactly and the mismatch between timing and demand is what's creating both opportunities and challenges. Now on the opportunity side, rates are trending downward and shippers with flexible cargo can really benefit from that. Now, on the challenge side, you're dealing with fewer sailings and thus less predictable service. 

The recent 90-day tariff extension on Chinese imports to mid-November gives importers cost certainty in the short run, but it won't really generate much extra demand since most of that inventory build already happened months ago. Carriers announced general rate increases in September, but without the volume, those hikes may not stick. 

Ryan: So the takeaway here for shippers is to be strategic with your ocean freight. If you've got non-urgent deliveries, the spot market is attractive right now. If you need guaranteed service, locking in contracted rates may still be smart given the risk of schedule disruption. The broader point is this. 

Ocean carriers are competing for limited volumes, which puts shippers in the driving seat. But to make the most of it, you need to balance cost savings with service reliability. And that means aligning your logistics team and your providers around both priorities. 

Mat: And one last thought before we close out here, we are tracking the status of reciprocal tariff lawsuit. The Supreme Court has agreed to fast track that review and judgement on this topic with the ruling expected as early as November. 

Until then, all reciprocal tariffs remain in place. And the larger topic of discussion now has become what a refund process might look like should the reciprocal tariffs be overturned. Now, at this point, it is uncharted waters, but C.H. Robinson has teams monitoring and preparing to answer that question as soon as those rulings are made. 

Thank you for watching and remember, Robinson goes further than anyone else in providing you with the edge you need to manage your complex global strategies. Now, for more details or additional content, reference the insights page on our website.