Freshspective
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 | Issue 155
Keep up with the most recent market trends in our Freshspective updates. Discover what's influencing conventional produce, organic options, temperature controlled capacity, and floral so you can plan ahead and avoid disruption.
Conventional Vegetables
Mexico continues to experience tight volumes, though production is gradually increasing as the weather cools down to temperatures more suitable for asparagus. We anticipate improvement around the last week of October, with peak production expected in November, just in time for the Thanksgiving pull. Peru is seeing strong production in both regions, and we don’t anticipate any issues in meeting projections as we prepare for the holidays. For more information on programs, advance pricing, and promotions, please contact your Robinson Fresh representative.
Bell Peppers
[email protected]Good news is that Coachella is starting this week, which will help meet demand. Markets continue to climb, as Georgia continues to be down on volume. Markets will continue to be very active, as we do not see any relief from Georgia. Some regions in Florida are reporting a later start than expected, with early to mid-December before we see any volume from Florida.
Broccoli
[email protected]Maine is finishing up its last week of supplies. Georgia and the Southeast will start up around the first full week of November.
Cabbage
Cabbage continues with good supply and quality out of the Midwest. Look for cabbage to begin in the Southeast mid to end of November.
Celery supplies are steady with good volume available in Oxnard, Santa Maria, and Salinas. The weather forecast calls for average temperatures with no rain expected in the growing regions. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for updates and information regarding availability and promotions.
Cucumbers
[email protected]Cooler weather is putting an end to the season in the Carolinas. Georgia does not have the ability to meet demand as yields continue to struggle. Florida is cleaning some of the fields, but no volume to speak of. Florida's season will be late and is being pushed until November 8. Normally, Florida's season gets going around October 20. We do not expect any consistent volume from Florida until December 10.
Greens
[email protected]Greens in the Northern growing regions are beginning to slow down. Wisconsin is finishing up, along with Ohio. There is still good quality and availability out of Michigan and the Northeast. The Southeast continues to heal from the impacts left by Helene and Milton. Volume and quality will continue to ramp up as we move into November, just in time for the Thanksgiving pull. Now is the time to talk to your Robinson Fresh representative for promotional pricing.
Leaf Lettuce
[email protected]Iceberg lettuce, romaine, red, and green leaf supplies are plentiful. Quality reports show good overall quality. The weather forecast calls for average temperatures this week. The primary shipping points are Santa Maria and Salinas. Please reach out to your Robinson Fresh representative for more details.
Potatoes
[email protected]Harvest continues on russets with Idaho leading the way. Overall quality and sizing are good. Steady supplies on reds and yellows out of multiple regions, including Idaho, Wisconsin, and North Dakota. Not much change to report from the last update. Look for things to remain steady until the holidays approach.
Squash
[email protected]Nogales is ready for business. We are starting to see good volume crossing in Nogales, so let’s promote. Georgia and Florida continue to struggle with volume and quality.
Sweet Corn
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Conventional Fruits
Apples
We are now harvesting all varieties out of Washington, including Gala, Honeycrisp, Fuji, Granny Smith, Golden Delicious, and Red Delicious. The new crop looks promising with estimates of around 124 million cases this year. Although this is smaller than last year’s crop of approximately 136 million, it’s still shaping up to be a good season! The quality of the new-crop fruit is reported to be very good, but the fruit size will run smaller than average this season, resulting in fewer large tray apples and more bagging fruit. We continue to have good supplies of apples for this time of year out of Washington. Most varieties and packs have good availability, and quality is holding up nicely. However, a few varieties and packs have tightened, leading to higher pricing. The Honeycrisp crop will be a little short and is now estimated to be 20% smaller than last year’s crop, resulting in higher prices this week. Other items that are tighter this week include Pink Lady, Fuji, and Cosmic Crisp. Overall, we still have good supplies of apples to sell and expect attractive pricing on most varieties through the remainder of the year. Apples will remain a good category to promote for the next several months with a predictable supply of high-quality fruit.
Avocados
Mexico is the dominant country of origin for the near future. Recent surveys of the Aventajada harvest show it will not meet the size expectation (large fruit) and volume expected by the US market. The size curve will not provide any additional relief on volume or pricing for US-preferred sizes for the retail market. Mexico has reached 95% of market share as California, Chile, and the Dominican Republic will only have a small presence in the USA. The size curve of the Mexico harvest is heavily concentrated on 60s and smaller fruit. More orchards are becoming available each week for export to the USA. The percentage of #2 fruit remains low with an unexpected increase in #3 fruit destined for the national market.
Bush Berries
[email protected]Blueberries: Peru shipments continue to increase, quality remains great, and fruit is moving quickly. We expect to see the peak in November and slow down in December, but Chile and Mexico will pick back up in January. Argentina fruit is being flown in to fill needs. Mexico volumes are crossing but very active in the “field” market. Chile is looking at similar volumes to last season, with an increase in organics.
Blackberries: Volume is increasing in Mexico, weather looks clearer, and we expect stability in about 10-14 days.
Raspberries: Additional volume in the market has eased, production is stable, and quality should continue to improve from early October arrivals.
Cantaloupe
The Central Valley is still harvesting cantaloupes but is starting to wind down, with sizing in the 9ct and 12ct profile. Yuma is starting to pick up in supply with limited Jumbo 9s and 12ct, mostly 9ct available.
Citrus
Oranges: Domestic navels have started in a small way out of California. Many growers delayed harvesting as fruit did not pass testing last week but expect to begin harvesting this week. Overall crop volume is projected to be slightly up from last season. Early season sizing will be heavy on small fruit, requiring long gas hours to bring out the color. Cooler nights are needed to help fruit color up, so gassing hours should improve as weather improves. Quality is anticipated to be great as growing conditions were good throughout the off-season. Grade expectation is 70% fancy, 15% choice, and 15% standard. Import navels have ended, and Midknight Valencias are available, with much of the supply committed to programs. Import Midknight supply should become more available as California ramps up. Florida juice oranges have started, with early varieties peaking on 100/125/138ct. The Hamlin variety is the first to be harvested and should be available through most of January before Valencias start. The overall juice orange market is expected to be strong this season.
Lemons: California lemons from District 3 are available, followed by District 1 fruit expected to start in November. Crop yields are peaking on 140/165/200, with large fruit being sparse early in the season. Florida lemons are available, peaking on the 140/165 range early on. Mexican lemons are available, mostly smaller fruit. Mexico has struggled with sizing and quality due to droughts in the growing regions. The crop is heavier to choice than fancy grade. Overall demand for large fruit will continue to strengthen with offshore imports ending, as MX and CA crops are peaking on small-sized fruit.
Grapefruit: Imports are ending, and markets are elevated as California ended early due to quality and low utilization. Mexican grapefruit has started, with mostly mid to small-sized fruit available, 40ct and smaller. Florida grapefruit started harvesting this week, with a similar sizing profile to Mexico. Florida experienced some loss due to hurricanes, assessments are still being determined. Texas grapefruit has started in a small way, but more volume should be available mid-November with a good quality crop anticipated since the last Texas freeze.
Mandarins: Import mandarin markets remain steady with the last of the Peruvian and South African supply ending. Chilean imports are still available with limited supply, as they will also end in the coming weeks. Expect mandarins to remain tight until the domestic California and import Moroccan season starts. Moroccan clementines are expected to start in November, with better volume arrivals slated for the end of November/beginning of December. Sizing is peaking on 2s and 3s. California clementines have started in a small way, but better volume is projected to start early to mid-November. Current gassing hours are 72-96 hours, which should improve come November. Overall volume is expected to be up from last year, with sizing peaking on 28ct. Florida tangerines are available, peaking on 120ct. Orri mandarins out of Florida are anticipated to start in December, peaking on 100ct.
Grapes
Growers have added almost 1 million boxes of Allison red seedless to the storage report in the past two weeks, preparing to extend their season into December. Green seedless movement has outpaced red seedless, so marketers must be careful not to slow down the movement altogether. Shippers are already looking to slow movement by increasing prices, as most indicators point towards an early finish to the season. The good news for retailers is that Piura, Peru has started harvesting early green seedless, and this year’s crop up north is on track to recover from last year’s El Niño that created shortages.
Honeydew
The Central Valley of California is still harvesting honeydews and has all sizes available, with a heavy focus on smaller 6ct and 8ct. Yuma has started honeydew production lightly but remains limited, with mostly jumbo 4ct and jumbo 5ct sizing available and little to no 6ct.
Limes
Region: Veracruz, Mexico Weather Update: The weather forecast shows a high percentage of rain throughout the week. Temperatures will fluctuate between 67 degrees and 85 degrees. Market Intel: The demand for limes has been steady. Sizing Profile: Peak sizes 200/175/230 Size distribution: 110-2%, 150-5%, 175-19%, 200-29%, 230-29%, 250-16%
Mangos
Brazil: Brazil is nearing the end of its mango season as growers are lowering their harvest volumes to the US. Most growers will cease operations by week 42, with a couple of growers still able to ship until early November due to their farms being up north compared to most other growers. We have seen a reduction of 35% in total volume season to date from Brazil, and we expect that to continue until the end of the season. Overall, we will see a shorter season from Brazil compared to last year due to Ecuador being early this mango season. We have heavy commitments on our Brazil supply on both special packs and 4kg packs, expect transactional volume to be available but not in heavy amounts from our own supply. The crop outlook in Brazil is about 50% large sizes (6-9ct) followed by 50% small sizes (10/12ct). We will see the Tommy Atkins variety at the beginning of the season, and come October, we will likely see a mix of Tommy and Keitt varieties shipping from Brazil. We expect to still pack some mango out of Brazil for the next few weeks, focusing more on 4kg large mango. New vessels shipping from Brazil are expected to be on time now that the strike has ended. Current weather conditions in Petrolina, Brazil are in the high-90s to mid-70s.
Ecuador: Ecuador has already started its peak harvest/packing for the US. Ecuador has increased its volume drastically from 135 containers exported of red mango in week 40 to 233 containers exported in week 41 (add two weeks for arrival weeks to the US). This means we will see heavy volumes arrive this week in the US. Ecuador started its season a couple of weeks earlier compared to the previous season mainly because of the early flowering of the trees due to weather conditions. Ecuador has already transitioned to ship more of the Tommy Atkin variety compared to the Ataulfo (Honey) variety for the past two weeks. From now on, we will see heavier volumes of Tommy Atkin compared to Ataulfos arriving in the US. We expect Ecuador to ship close to 13 million cases this season, with 85% of it coming to the US. The crop outlook in Ecuador is about 25% large sizes (6-9ct) followed by 75% small sizes (10/12ct). We have seen a reduction in ocean carriers going to both the East Coast and West Coast. Though there are still a few options to ship fruit, the number of containers available has decreased due to poor container rotation because of the port strike earlier this month. During the IFPA event, this became an important topic among the parties involved (shippers, growers, ocean carriers), and it was discussed that it will become an issue starting this week on exports from Ecuador. South America as a whole is showing a 73% reefer shortage. We will keep monitoring this and update weekly. Current weather conditions in Guayaquil, Ecuador are in the high-80s to low-70s.
Papaya
Supply is not meeting demand for papaya in the USA market. Supply conditions remain the same this week as quality issues in Mexico continue to affect overall yields. Contracts are still being prorated due to the lack of availability and extremely high prices. Prices are now stable but still very high in the US market, with even higher prices on smaller fruit. Crop yields continue to be affected by changes in weather, with additional rainfall at the fields and root rot still present. Weather conditions in Mexico are reported as mixed and not favorable for yields. Inventories show no availability to offer. The majority of sizes are between 6s – 12s with no surplus fruit. Quality is reported as marginal, with fruit showing high speckling and some scarring. Color is 25%-50% / 12-14 brix at the point of shipping. The ideal temperature for Imperial Papaya is 48 degrees to avoid quality issues upon receiving. The crop outlook forecast has conditions as mixed with tight supply for the next two weeks. Market intel indicates not enough supply to service demand.
Pears
We are now shipping Bartletts, Anjou, Bosc, and red pears out of Washington and Oregon this week. Overall, the pear crop will be very short this year, with all varieties being down 30% to 50%. We won’t have the final totals until the crop is finished harvesting around November 5th. The good news is that the remaining fruit will be of good quality and is eating well this year. Due to the short crop, expect prices to be much higher than in previous years.
Pineapple
Availability: Supply NOT Meeting Demand in U.S. Market
Growing region: Mexico - Little to no fruit is crossing out of Mexico last week. The summer gap continues to stretch deep into October with little to no available fruit to pack and export. Most fruit harvested will remain in Mexico, sold at the internal market with good overall prices. Weather at the pineapple fields is affecting internal quality, with heavy basal spot being reported. Transportation out of Mexico is stable, with good availability of trucks to service pineapple shippers. Costa Rica - Continues to improve mainly on the availability of small fruit but with very little available on 5/6 caliber fruit. Good quality on fruit being exported, but the main issue remains size. The shortage of large fruit has not changed and, as per the latest forecast, will be ongoing for the remainder of this season. The market will remain high for the next few weeks with no significant surplus expected, but prices have come down some due to lagging demand.
Mexican fruit quality is marginal, with little to no fruit meeting USA specs. Prices are high on all counts out of Mexico and Costa Rica. Costa Rica - Volume is improving at packing with the expectation to improve further on smaller counts. Some surplus fruit is available to pack on small counts at this time. The USA market remains high on all counts with supply not meeting demand. Costa Rica is under mostly mixed conditions in the Northern Region.
Movement: USDA shows a very low number of pineapple loads crossing last week, with only 615 containers reported from Costa Rica for the entire continental USA. It continues to be a very low number for this time of year with little change in the last few weeks.
Forecast: Some surplus fruit is being offered at shipping points by large grower-shippers at this time. The market is high with good demand and slightly lower prices this week
Strawberries
California - Strawberries are still being harvested in the Salinas/Watsonville, California growing areas but are past their peak production. Santa Maria and Oxnard are harvesting newer crop fruit on a regular basis, causing tiered pricing. Older California fruit is fair quality with full color and medium to small sizing, while Santa Maria and Oxnard new crop has slightly larger fruit and generally better quality. Mexico should start harvesting in 7-10 days. Santa Maria for the week of 10/21 is forecasted to be mostly sunny. Highs in the low 80s, decreasing to the 70s Friday through the balance of the week; lows in the 40s to low 50s. The week of 10/28 is forecasted on Monday for sunshine, Tuesday and Wednesday cloudy, and sunny Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the 60s, increasing to the 70s on Thursday and then decreasing to the 60s Friday and Saturday, and then increasing to the 80s on Sunday; lows in the 40s to low 50s. Oxnard for the week of 10/21 is forecasted to be mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. The week of October 28 is forecast to be mostly sunny on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mostly cloudy, and Thursday through the weekend sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, increasing to the 80s on Sunday; lows in the 50s.
Watermelon
We continue to have good supplies out of Northern Mexico shipping into Nogales, AZ. Quality has been good, and we are seeing some lots with lower brix. We will have good supplies until the middle of November and look for supplies to get tight in December.
Organic Fruits & Vegetables
Organic Apples
[email protected]We are now harvesting and shipping new-crop organic Gala, organic Honeycrisp, organic Fuji, and organic Granny Smith. New crop organic Pink Lady has also started to harvest and ship in the last week, but quantities are very limited right now. The organic crop looks to be a little smaller than last year’s crop, but there’s still a very good crop on the trees. We expect to have good supplies all year, and prices should be very promotable again for the rest of this year.
Organic Dry Vegetables
[email protected]Nogales seems to be getting started on some dry vegetables. We are mostly seeing some cucumbers, bell peppers, sweet peppers, and zucchini. There is not a lot of volume coming in so markets are firm. As we get through October and into November, we will start seeing things really open up and be promotable.
Organic Melons
[email protected]Organic minis from northern Mexico are loading in Nogales, AZ. Quality has been good, and we will have good supplies for another 4 to 5 weeks.
Organic Onions
[email protected]Organic onions are going strong now! Supply is coming from Washington, Oregon, and California. Overall quality is outstanding! The markets have come down from their highs and are now starting to be promotable. Our onion program out of Hollister, California is peaking on jumbos. We have plenty of red and yellow onions, and the quality is outstanding!
Organic Pears
[email protected]We are now shipping new-crop organic Bartletts, organic Anjou, and organic Bosc this week. Overall, the organic pear crop will be down 30%-50%, depending on the variety. Expect prices to be much higher than in previous years, but quality to remain very good.
Organic Potatoes
[email protected]The potato season is in full swing now with all varieties available out of Washington, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Demand is strong going into the month of October, and it’s time to get your Thanksgiving advertisements in place. Markets are steady at this point on all three colors. Specialty potatoes (fingerlings and baby potatoes) are in good supply as well.
Organic Squash
[email protected]It is time to start pushing winter squash. The weather is changing, and so are store sets. Time to carry all of the great varieties we are offering out of Hollister, California! Quality is very good with very little scarring on the squash. We have Butternut, Spaghetti, Acorn, Delicata, Kabocha, Red Kuri, Carnival, and Honeynut.
Organic Sweet Potatoes
[email protected]The sweet potato market has now moved on to only new crop. Growers are still digging up sweet potatoes, but all varieties are now available out of Livingston, California. Markets are strong currently due to the new crop starting, but it is also time to start thinking about your Thanksgiving advertisements. Give us a call, and we can help you set up those ads!
Transportation
Despite regional produce season ramping up out of the Pacific Northwest, the broader temperature-controlled market remains loose. Seasonally, there tends to be pressure on capacity within the Northeast, driven by port activity. Given the disruption caused by port labor issues, this could potentially be amplified this year. Disruptions from hurricanes in the Southeast could exacerbate this as well.
Western United States
Since Labor Day, historical trends have prevailed from southwest origin points. Due to the broader market conditions, capacity has been widely available across the region. Markets have begun to tighten out of the Pacific Northwest, which is a trend that will likely continue over the coming months as seasonal freight demand increases. Providing ample lead time will improve coverage and mitigate price increases.
Central United States
The Mid-South market continues to soften, with capacity readily available. The Mid-North and Great Lakes regions are in the early stages of seasonal tightening, but there hasn’t been too much movement of note just yet.
Eastern United States
The Southeast market remains very soft, and capacity is readily available. There is more risk out of this region of the United States than any other currently due to weather and labor disruptions. Staying vigilant about current market conditions is important in this region.
The Northeast is in a similar situation, as current capacity is ample, but threats of labor issues and even hurricanes remain. Shorter lead time is more challenging in the Northeast than the Southeast.
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GLOBAL UPDATES
OCEAN CARRIER CONSOLIDATION - Fresh produce growers and shippers attempting to move cargo globally via ocean vessels are dealing with scenarios where ocean carriers genuinely dictate some markets. They dictate and determine the marketability and viability of export markets for many fresh produce exporters. Shippers are being forced to commit earlier to ocean lines to reserve space for upcoming seasons, and spot market space on vessels is nearly impossible to secure.
RED SEA SHIPPING CRISIS – The total capacity of ocean containers has grown by 10% in the past 12 months, yet much capacity was absorbed by re-routing the Red Sea and Asia port congestion in the recent months. Hundreds of ships are currently diverting around Africa to avoid attacks in the Red Sea, causing delays to global trade and inflicting months of disruption and imminent price rises on supplies. Crisis has led to doubling insurance costs and soaring demands for security services, which have raised prices and affected availability of fresh produce from Africa and Australia.
DEMURRAGE/DETENTION CHARGES - Shippers negotiating with ocean carriers or freight forwarders on perishable cargo contracts should request as much free time at destination as possible to reduce the risk of detention/demurrage charges when inspections/fumigations or drayage capacity constraints delay cargo delivery at destination. Unavoidable and unprecedented demurrage and detention charges due to delays in turning cargo at destination continue in 2024.
PORT STRIKE - The recent port strike involving dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States has been temporarily suspended following a tentative agreement reached between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The strike, which began on October 2, 2024, had shut down 14 major ports, causing significant disruptions to supply chains and threatening economic stability. Their master contract has been extended until January 15, 2025, allowing further negotiations on other outstanding issues.
For more global freight insights please visit Global Freight Markets Insights | C.H. Robinson.
Floral
Colombia availability is good. Ecuador keeps fighting drought which has impacted electricity production and, hence, availability. Hurricane Milton will impact the supply chain as it crosses the Florida peninsula.