Iran conflict disrupts global energy supply chains

Expect delays in energy sector inputs, equipment and project cargo

Escalating military activity focused on Iran has introduced significant disruption risk across global transportation networks, with ocean and air freight in the Middle East experiencing the most immediate impact. While there has been limited direct effect on over-the-road U.S. or Europe freight flows to date, conditions in key global corridors have deteriorated quickly and warrant close monitoring.

Delivering activity in and around the Persian Gulf and Red Sea has been materially disrupted. Ocean carriers are instructing vessels to halt transits through the Strait of Hormuz and suspend Red Sea routings. In air freight, airspace restrictions and heightened security measures have led to suspended services and reduced operations at major Gulf hubs, forcing airlines to reroute, delay or cancel cargo flights.

For U.S. and European energy markets, the immediate risk is supply chain delay and cost inflation. Slower delivery of energy equipment, chemicals and project cargo into and out of the Middle East and tighter vessel availability is cascading into Europe-Asia and Trans-Atlantic schedules.

For Europe specifically, sustained avoidance of the Red Sea and Suez Canal and instability in the Gulf increases the likelihood of longer lead times and higher landed costs for refinery, petrochemical and power-sector inputs that frequently move on these corridors, with knock-on effects to inventory positioning and turnaround planning.

For the United States, the near-term operational impact is more indirect. Airspace restrictions and reduced Gulf hub operations are tightening air capacity and extending transit times, which can delay time-sensitive spares and critical components for upstream and midstream operations and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) support, while rerouting freight over the Pacific contributes to broader capacity stress.

Across both regions, watch for energy-price pass-through. If sustained disruption contributes to higher oil prices, that can translate into higher diesel and logistics costs across already-constrained carrier networks, amplifying delivered-cost pressure throughout the United States and European energy supply chains.

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Revocation of U.S. emissions rules brings uncertainty

The U.S. administration has revoked the Endangerment Finding of 2009, which determined that greenhouse gasses pose a risk to public health. The finding was the original basis for the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) climate regulations, thus they were rescinded simultaneously. The revocations are set to go into effect 20 April 2026.

How it affects the energy sector

• The repeal applies to standards used for coal-fired and natural-gas power plants. But the EPA still regulates pollutants associated with fossil fuels such as nitrous oxide and ozone. Power plant operators and other energy-related businesses could have increased exposure to litigation.
• The repeal eases federal constraints on oil, gas, coal and power generation, potentially driving increased production, drilling and refining activity.
• Energy logistics may face volatility rather than stability. Reduced regulation could speed permitting and investment in fossil‑fuel infrastructure, even as clean‑energy projects continue and compete for the same logistics capacity.
• Meanwhile, global energy trade flows remain misaligned with U.S. policy, potentially forcing U.S. producers and exporters to manage divergent standards and adding complexity to cross‑border delivery, export documentation and supply chain design.

How to get ready for what’s next

• Secure cargo capacity ahead of demand spikes.
• Design your logistics for volatility. Shorten planning cycles and build flexible capacity strategies for your contract, spot and specialised freight. This will help you to manage stops and starts in your delivery driven by deregulation, litigation and varying state and global energy policies.
• Lean on logistics providers with deep energy expertise for speed and visibility. In a less predictable market, shippers benefit from providers that can reroute freight quickly, manage specialised capacity and provide real‑time visibility as demand shifts.

Despite U.S. policy hurdles, solar still going strong

Despite the end of policies that encouraged renewables and provided tax breaks, solar energy covered 61% of the growth in U.S. electricity demand in 2025. Solar remains resilient and continues to be one of the fastest and cleanest ways to expand energy generation.

What’s new for solar

• Solar module production has grown domestically to over 55 GW, a more than sevenfold increase since 2022. Certain components such as cells and wafers remain highly imported.
• Much of the demand increase was in fast‑growing regions like Texas and the Midwest, signalling a structural shift in where and how energy capacity is added.
• 2026 is expected to bring more reshoring of renewable component manufacturing and an increase in recycling.
• There is potential for a shift in renewable technology focus with the changes in U.S. tax credits. Utility-sized wind and solar projects are having tax credits phased out, while energy storage, geothermal and hydro are retaining longer tax-credit windows beyond 2030.

The logistics takeaway

Solar panels, inverters, batteries and grid equipment are increasingly driving freight demand. Logistics networks must support faster, more distributed infrastructure roll-outs, elevating the importance of flexible capacity, last‑mile project co-ordination and region‑specific execution.

Improving safety in oilfield logistics

Oilfields are among the most hazardous work environments in the United States, requiring specialised training and strict adherence to transportation regulations.

• Roughly three-quarters of accidents happen due to human error, so working with a logistics provider that has oilfield expertise and strict adherence to safety compliance and regulations is critically important to mitigating risks in the field.
• Advanced protective equipment—such as respiratory masks—combined with vehicle monitoring, tracking and safety systems helps protect truck drivers, prevent incidents and reduce environmental impacts.
• Emergency response planning is a crucial aspect of responsible oilfield logistics. Having emergency action plans and technology in place helps workers react confidently.

U.S. Supreme Court strikes down some tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The ruling ends those duties, including global reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada that were intended to stop the flow of fentanyl. Importantly for the energy sector, the ruling also invalidates tariffs on goods from countries that bought Russian oil or sold oil to Cuba.

New tariffs under other legal authorities are widely expected. The administration has instituted a temporary 10% tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This tariff is limited to 150 days unless an extension is granted by Congress. The administration has signalled it will replace it with permanent tariffs under Section 301.

Section 122 tariffs are added to other existing tariffs, but there are exceptions. Products that are currently subject to Section 232 tariffs, including steel and aluminium, are excluded. However, if only part of a product is subject to Section 232, Section 122 may still apply to the non 232 portion.

Supply chain leaders should avoid making sourcing decisions based on the ruling and instead stay focused on proven resilience strategies, including diversifying sourcing and using trade programmes where available. One important way to build resilience is by creating a sourcing hierarchy with suppliers from different countries and or regions. The hierarchy should prioritise suppliers based on geopolitical realities, business continuity and cost efficiency. A first step toward achieving this is dual sourcing: your current supplier plus a backup in a different country.

While focusing on proven resilience strategies is critical, there are ways to preserve your right to potential refunds:

• Review current customs entries, especially those nearing key deadlines.
• For closed (liquidated) entries, file a protest within 180 days of the liquidation date.
• For open entries, continue to monitor for a liquidation date to take appropriate action.
• Consider keeping in touch to a trade solicitor to discuss if any legal filing should be made with the Court of International Trade.
• Use tools such as U.S. Tariff Impact Analysis, ACE Import Intelligence and U.S. Customs Analytics to make informed decisions.

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